But this year I've become really interested in the Oscars. I've seen (almost) all of the Best Picture nominees, and since there are ten of them this year, I feel pretty knowledgeable about the majority of the categories. I'm not exactly a sound editing wunderkind or anything, so a lot of these are guesses based on my own personal feelings about the films and some pretty extensive reading of professional predictions while bored at work.
So, ladies and gentlemen, I am proud to present:
Amelia's Oscar Predictions, 2010 Edition!
First off, the biggest prize of the night, Best Picture.
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up In The Air.
Winner: The Hurt Locker. This film floored me. I watched it by myself on a slow Saturday night, and it's been my front-runner for Best Picture ever since. It's intense, suspenseful, and gritty. The other strong contender, Avatar, was excellent, don't get me wrong, but the writing left something (read: a lot) to be desired, and both times I watched it, I got the sense that it was unnecessarily long. I thought District 9 was really amazing, and was shocked that Sharlto Copley wasn't nominated for Best Actor, but it just doesn't have enough critical acclaim to make it. Precious was another absolutely breathtaking film, but it has the same problem as District 9. Inglourious Basterds was thoroughly entertaining, and if The Hurt Locker or Avatar doesn't win, it'll be this one. The Hurt Locker was really an incredible film all the way around, and at the end of the day, it's got to get my vote.
Best Actor.
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up In The Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), and Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker).
Winner: Jeff Bridges. I haven't seen Crazy Heart, but everyone is raving about Bridges' performance. He's been a great actor for a long time, and has never been rewarded with an Oscar. I say it's abut time for him to get a little golden "dude" of his own. Clooney was very good, but he seems to be playing the same role over and over again, and while I always enjoy watching it, I don't think the Academy will reward it. I loved Renner, too, but I don't think he's got enough to beat Bridges.
Best Actress:
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia).
Winner: Sandra Bullock. Of the acting categories, I'm most unsure about this one. Sidibe was excellent in Precious, and it's ridiculous to try to think of an actress that's better than Meryl Streep (I am one of the Streep devotees who will go see a film just because she's in it [like It's Complicated...sigh]), but like Bridges, Bullock has been a mainstay in Hollywood for years and has never won an Oscar. It's her turn. And her work in The Blind Side really was heartfelt.
Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds).
Winner: Christoph Waltz. He is the overwhelming favorite in this category, and for good reason. He was fantastic in Basterds. I originally watched the film for Brad Pitt (and because it was an assignment for class), but I was quickly drawn in by Waltz. If he doesn't win, I think the Academy may have a riot on their hands.
Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air), and Mo'Nique (Precious).
Winner: Mo'Nique. Hands down. If any category is a lock, it's this one. Her performance in Precious was nothing short of amazing.
Best Director:
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up In The Air), and Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds).
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow. All of the press about her being the first woman to win this award aside, she absolutely deserves it. (I suppose my bias towards The Hurt Locker is a little apparent, but really, have you seen the movie? If you haven't, get on it. Now. Seriously. I'll wait.)
Best Original Screenplay:
Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up.
Winner: For me, it's between the first two, but I think I'm going to have to go with Basterds on this one. Tarantino rewrote World War II, and did it with a great combination of comedy and suspense.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Nominees: District 9, An Education, In The Loop, Precious, and Up In The Air.
Winner: Up In The Air. I really did love District 9 (another one that if you haven't seen it, you need to, right now) but Up In The Air was extremely well-written. Another reason is that UITA was a critical darling in the earlier rounds of predictions (before the BAFTAs, etc.) and this is an opportunity to give an award to a film that deserves at least one.
Best Cinematography:
Nominees: Avatar, The White Ribbon, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, and Inglourious Basterds.
Winner: Avatar. While I wasn't a fan of the writing or acting, this film was one of the most visually stunning things I've ever seen. It deserves this one.
Best Editing:
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Precious.
Winner: The Hurt Locker. To me, the nominees for this category seem like the ones the Academy "really" wanted to nominate for Best Picture. The Hurt Locker was edited beautifully, with lots of suspense. All bias aside, it should win.
Best Art Direction:
Nominees: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, and Precious.
Winner: Avatar. Duh.
Best Costume Design:
Nominees: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, and The Young Victoria.
Winner: I haven't seen any of these movies, but Coco Before Chanel and The Young Victoria are the current front-runners. I'm going to have to give my vote to Coco Before Chanel, purely because it's a movie about Chanel. And I love Chanel.
Best Makeup:
Nominees: Il divo, Star Trek, and The Young Victoria.
Winner: The Young Victoria. Roger Ebert says Star Trek, but I think that there should be a bit more to it than Vulcan ears. Stills I've seen from The Young Victoria look lovely, so I'm going for that one.
Best Original Score:
Nominees: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, and Up.
Winner: Up. Seriously, the music in this film is so excellent. Even listening to the theme now brings tears to my eyes. I really like Michael Giacchino's work, and I think he deserves this one wholeheartedly.
Best Original Song:
Nominees: Crazy Heart, Faubourg 36, Nine, and two songs from The Princess and the Frog.
Winner: Crazy Heart. I didn't much care for any of these songs, but listening to "The Weary Kind", it seems to be the most likely choice for voters.
Best Sound Mixing:
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.
Winner: The Hurt Locker. I don't have any idea what this category means, but anything that Transformers is nominated for makes me giggle. The Hurt Locker is the clear front-runner among experts, so I'm going to trust them.
Best Sound Editing:
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, and Up.
Winner: Again, I have no idea about this category, but apparently it's a toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. I guess I'll say Inglourious Basterds, because The Hurt Locker wins Best Picture and Tarantino needs something to keep him warm at night.
Best Visual Effects:
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, and Star Trek.
Winner: Avatar. Again, duh.
Best Animated Film:
Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, and Up.
Winner: Up. As only the second animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture, Up should win this category no problem.
As for the rest of the categories, I'll confess I've only seen one nominee (Food, Inc., nominated for Best Documentary). So these are purely based on professional predictions I've read, and as such, I'll only put who the winners will be.
Best Foreign Language Film:
The White Ribbon
Best Documentary:
Apparently it's between The Cove and Food, Inc., but The Cove has won a ton of awards already this year, so it'll probably win.
Best Short Documentary:
Rabbit a la Berlin
Best Animated Short Film:
Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death'
Best Live Action Short Film:
Miracle Fish
That's really about it for the predictions...the rest of the technical awards aren't covered by anyone, and I don't know anything about technical aspects of filmmaking, so I guess I'll leave it to the experts.